I think his point is actually more profound: the American regime as currently constituted is incapable of winning the war, because this would require it to give up the shibboleths that have been the source of its legitimacy during the 20th century. A serious war on terror would result in a world, and an America, as different from the present as the Edwardian world was from the world after WWI. Codevilla uses "regime" in the Aristotelian sense of, not just the government, but the prominent people and institutions that create the incentives and disincentives that determine who rules and for whose benefit. Even with Bush president, the "regime" in America is composed of institutions like the New York Times, CNN, Goldman Sachs, the National Education Association, the National Council of Churches, Harvard University, the ACLU, Common Cause, "Hollywood," "Madison Avenue" etc. etc. ad infinitum. These people do not, cannot and will not fight and win the war.